In the wake of the largest series of U.S. tariff hikes since 1930, a new study from Michigan State University explores how this economic shock is reshaping global supply chains and offers a framework to help researchers and policymakers make sense of the chaos. The study was recently published in the Journal of Supply Chain Management.

“Unlike previous trade wars, the 2025 actions came with extreme uncertainty,” said Jason Miller, lead author of the study and the Eli Broad Endowed Professor in Supply Chain Management at MSU. “We wanted to provide a framework to help researchers and practitioners make sense of what’s happening and what to expect going forward.”

The paper outlines a theoretical framework around categories of costs firms must navigate in response to tariffs: adjustment costs, transaction costs, and the opportunity costs of responding too early or too late.